Stocks Slump on AI Slowdown Fears and Rising Bond Yields and Crude Prices

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) is down by -0.83% today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is down by -0.53%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down by -1.39%. E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) are down -0.80%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) are down -1.31%.

Stock indexes are tumbling today, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 6-week low. Weakness in chipmakers and AI-infrastructure stocks are driving the broader market lower today after leaders of the biggest artificial-intelligence firms proposed slowing the technology’s development, raising concerns that efforts to rein in AI could curb billions of dollars in capital spending to build out the technology. On the positive side, software stocks are climbing today as the threat of an AI spending slowdown dampens the risk of disruption to software companies.

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AI stocks are retreating today after Anthropic CEO Amodei said his company would introduce fresh safeguards, urging the industry to slow the development of its most advanced AI models. OpenAI’s Sam Altman and xAI’s Elon Musk backed the proposal.

Today’s +3% jump in crude oil prices is also raising inflation expectations and weighing on stocks as the higher inflation expectations drive global interest rates higher. The UK Gilt 10-year bond yield rose to a 19-year high today of 5.43%, the 10-year German Bund rose to a 17-year high of 3.56%, and the 10-year T-note yields rose to a 2.75-year high of 5.01%.

Oct WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) are up more than +3% today on concern that global oil supplies will get even tighter after Saudi Arabia closed a major pipeline following attacks, disrupting a key route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia closed the East-West pipeline late last week, which carries 7 million bpd of crude, as a precaution following attacks by Houthi rebels and gave no indication of when it will reopen. The pipeline moves oil away from the Persian Gulf toward the Red Sea, where it can be loaded on tankers. Saudi Arabia told OPEC last Thursday that its crude production in August fell to 6.238 million bpd, the lowest since 1990.

Markets are discounting a 91% chance of a +25 bp Fed rate hike at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting.

Overseas stock markets are lower today. The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 6-week low and is down -1.18%. China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.07%. Japan's Nikkei-225 Stock Average dropped to a 6-week low and closed down -0.81%.

December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ6) are down by -8 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is up +3.5 bp to 5.002%. T-notes tumbled to a new 2.75-year nearest futures low today, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to a 2.75-year high of 5.012%. Today’s +3% jump in WTI crude oil has boosted inflation expectations and is undercutting T-note prices. Also, heightened expectations of a 25 bp interest rate hike by the Fed at the Tue/Wed FOMC meeting are weighing on T-note prices. However, today’s slump in equity markets has boosted some safe-haven demand for government debt securities and is limiting losses in T-notes.

European government bond yields are moving higher today. The 10-year German bund yield today posted a 17-year high of 3.555% and is up +4.2 bp to 3.546%. The 10-year UK gilt yield climbed to a 19-year high of 5.434% and is up +8.6 bp to 5.429%.

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said recent energy price developments have been "quite concerning" as officials weigh further interest rate increases.

ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said that inflation risks are "clearly tilted to the upside" and the ECB will raise interest rates further if necessary.

Markets are discounting a 78% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting on October 29.

Chipmakers and AI stocks are retreating today, weighing on the broader market. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) is down more than -5% at a 1-week low. Coherent (COHR) is down more than -11%, and Teradyne (TER) is down more than -11% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Arm Holdings (ARM) is down more than -8%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL) is down more than -7%. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Lam Research (LRCX), Intel (INTC), and Micron Technology (MU) are down more than -6%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML), KLA Corp (KLAC), SanDisk (SNDK), and Western Digital (WDC) are down more than -5%. Finally, Analog Devices (ADI), Broadcom (AVGO), NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI), Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) are down more than -4%.

Software stocks are gaining today after AI leaders called for a slower development of the technology. Thomson Reuters (TRI) is up more than +6%, and Autodesk (ADSK) and ServiceNow (NOW) are up more than +5%. Also, Intuit (INTU) and Workday (WDAY) are up more than +4%, and Salesforce (CRM) is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, Adobe Systems (ADBE) is up more than +3%, and Atlassian Corp (TEAM) and Datadog (DDOG) are up more than +2%.

Cybersecurity stocks are moving higher today. CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is up more than +12% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Zscaler (ZS) is up more than +11%, Also. SentinelOne (S) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) are up more than +10%, and Okta (OKTA) is up more than +9%. In addition, Cloudflare (NET) and Fortinet (FTNT) are up more than +5%.

Corning (GLW) is down more than -12% to lead losers in the S&P 500, after entering into a $2 billion equity distribution agreement with Goldman Sachs.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is down more than -10% after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to inline from outperform, citing valuation.

Definium Therapeutics (DFTX) is up more than +4% after announcing that a late-stage trial of its investigational pill for generalized anxiety disorder met its primary and key secondary efficacy endpoints.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.