Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed’s Job?

The market spent this week chasing a different driver almost every day. Inflation refused to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to relax, Europe moved closer to another rate hike, and oil stopped trading purely on war …

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The Cleaner Fed Trade Is in SOFR, Not Treasuries

The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating target for short-t…

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Rates Outlook: The Heat Ratchets Higher

WASHINGTON — Citing a brighter economic outlook, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate Wednesday but maintained its forecast for a total of three hikes this year amid still-modest inflation.

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Rates Outlook: A Short Sigh of Relief

The prospect of a peace agreement between the United States andIran is fueling optimism across global financial and commodity markets. At the center of attention is the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most important…

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Global Bond Markets at a Tipping Point

A historic bond issuance frenzy driven by the artificial intelligence arms race is pushing the global investment-grade bond market to its limits. On July 13 local time, US semiconductor stocks and AI concept shares suff…

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