France Is Discovering the Cost of Higher Yields
Three themes have been shaping portfolios through the summer: politics; bond yields; and (inevitably) AI.
Read more →Fixed Income
Bond Market Weekly: The Selloff Is Starting to Find Its Limits
Actions by advanced economies to limit rising government bond yields are unlikely to be durable without additional policy change or a material economic slowdown—but the first is unlikely and the second is unwanted.
Read more →What Do Parabolic Treasury Yields Tell Us?
Precious metals investors are watching market conditions closely as gold and silver hover at pivotal price points. While both metals have already posted impressive gains, multiple converging factors suggest we may be wi…
Read more →Rates Spark: Widening Fiscal Woes
SEOUL – A surge in long-term US Treasury yields is driving up borrowing costs in Korea, lifting government bond yields and adding pressure on companies, households and stocks.
Read more →Rates Fall Sharply Ahead of the September Jobs Report
TOKYO - Tokyo stocks fell on October 2, with the Nikkei 225 closing at 68,309, down 647 points, as investors took profits after the previous day’s sharp rally and turned cautious ahead of U.S. employment data, rising gl…
Read more →To What Extent Is the Rise in Long-Dated Rates Attributable to AI?
It appears that investors are concerned that the economy could be overheating, potentially leading to a faster tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. Last week, S&P Global released its latest flash purcha…
Read more →Bessent Intervened in September. So Why Is He Silent as 10-Year Hits 24-Year High
On August 19, 2026, the U.S. Treasury announced that it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity sectors.
Read more →Treasury Yields Keep Rising. Can the Economy Keep Up?
Major bond markets are under pressure thanks to massive AI debt sales, fiscal woes, and inflation concerns.
Read more →Gilts Too Distracted for Good News
Prime Minister Burnham presented UK government plans that should help ease gilt investors' concerns about political risks. For now, US rates and energy costs continue in the driver's seat, offering little relief for gil…
Read more →Real Yield Rise Is Not That Mysterious
Nasa is releasing a steady stream of stunning pictures of the Moon and Earth taken by the astronauts on its Artemis II Moon mission.
Read more →Bond Yields Are Surging: What It Means for Stocks, Gold, and the US Dollar
Gold prices are facing a critical test at the start of September as a renewed global bond sell-off puts pressure on non-yielding assets.
Read more →Treasury Jitters Are Rising, Yet the Real Pressure Is Building in Diesel
Early trading shows the Dow down around 0.3%. The S&P 500 is nearly unchanged. The Nasdaq is inching higher. This comes after yesterday’s pullback, when both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated from record highs. Rising oi…
Read more →Bond Markets Are Screaming, and Every Asset Class Should Be Listening
Stocks of the largest U.S. companies plunged 10% in one week late last year and closed flat for 2015. The selloff hit investors in the high-flying market for Chinese stocks with a whopping 25% drop from the April high a…
Read more →Rates Outlook: Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil and Rates
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 challenged much of the common Western understanding of Russia. How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eura…
Read more →Rates Outlook: Time Not on France’s Side
Kylian Mbappe’s France continue their quest for the world title, facing Lamine Yamal’s Spain in a blockbuster semifinal.
Read more →Rates Outlook: Global Long-End Gets Some Relief From the BoE
The BoE today updated its approach to shrinking its balance sheet and the result today is a further drop in gilt yields with the 10 yr yield now down 8.5 bps. They will halt for the next 6 months its asset sales and thi…
Read more →US 10-Year Likely Gets Above and Stays Above 5% Ahead
Equities fall for 6th time in 7 sessions bringing key downside levels closer as breadth deteriorates, oil approaches 4-year highs and long-term yields hit the highest in nearly two decades
Read more →Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed’s Job?
The market spent this week chasing a different driver almost every day. Inflation refused to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to relax, Europe moved closer to another rate hike, and oil stopped trading purely on war …
Read more →Bond Market Turmoil Is a Warning Shot for Every Investor
1. AI selloff looks like a reset, not a regime break: The selloff is painful but still concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, rather than showing broad recession stress, disorderly yields or an earnings collapse. …
Read more →The Cleaner Fed Trade Is in SOFR, Not Treasuries
The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating target for short-t…
Read more →Weak Buyback and Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals for Bonds
Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if current bondholder…
Read more →Treasury Yield Premium Surges Amid Inflation and Debt Worries
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3 percent in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Read more →Are Rising Treasury Yields Part of Warsh’s Inflation Strategy?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in the midst of a historic effort to tamp down long-term Treasury yields. He may also be complicating the work of his counterpart at the Federal Reserve, Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Read more →Rates Outlook: The Heat Ratchets Higher
WASHINGTON — Citing a brighter economic outlook, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate Wednesday but maintained its forecast for a total of three hikes this year amid still-modest inflation.
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