PERSONAL JOURNAL: OIL 3 YEARS AHEAD - THE BIG BOO?For the love of God, divide by half and do your own analysis. This is a personal journal War begins, oil infrastructure kaboom, social infrastructure gone sadly, GCC completely paralyzed, Asia out of fuel, Russia depots continue getting bombarded by Ukraine and so oil goes beyond meat. Again this is for me, if it helps you see things different cool. US Oil companies subsidize at full capacity and at massive premiums, inland and offshore leveraged companies become pure plays.
In-depth trading ideasOil Turbulence, Metals WeakenRecently, the oil market has been at the center of strong volatility: #BRENT and #WTI prices are reacting to news surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, risks of supply disruptions, and negotiations involving Iran. Any signals of de-escalation push prices lower, while reports of new shipping restrictions drive oil upward again. Against this backdrop, gold and silver are declining: expensive oil fuels inflation expectations, which raises concerns about tighter Federal Reserve policy and a stronger dollar. Key volatility drivers: 1. Brent — Strait of Hormuz and supply disruption risks Brent is especially sensitive to Middle East news, as a significant share of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. As long as shipping remains under threat, prices react quickly even to isolated statements and incidents. 2. WTI — impact of geopolitics and U.S. inventories WTI follows Brent’s movements but also reacts to U.S. oil and fuel inventory data. Declining gasoline and distillate stocks support prices, while rising crude inventories periodically cool buying interest. Downside factors: 1. XAUUSD — pressure from rates and the dollar Gold is declining as the market fears that expensive oil could reignite inflation and delay rate cuts. In such conditions, investors tend to favor dollar-denominated assets over gold. 2. XAGUSD — weakness in industrial demand Silver is falling more sharply than gold because it depends not only on safe-haven demand but also on industrial consumption. Concerns about the global economy and high interest rates are adding pressure on XAGUSD. #BRENT and #WTI remain highly volatile, as the oil market is currently driven by news on the Strait of Hormuz, shipping conditions, and negotiations around Iran. As long as these risks persist, prices may swing sharply in either direction—even within a single day. XAUUSD and XAGUSD may continue to decline if high oil prices sustain inflation fears and the market does not see clear signals of imminent rate cuts.
Can't go higher because world economyOn March 7, 2022, the war in Ukraine reached its peak, and the global economy began to collapse, much like during the COVID-19 pandemic. Oil prices cannot reach $150 or higher because no one wants to starve to death. Today's speech by Powell, or perhaps a decision to go to war on May 1st, might push prices up to $135-140, but ultimately, they will fall sharply to the $60 level.
Brent crude heading to retest current swing highs? The BRENT crude oil remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 10850 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 10850 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 11470 – initial resistance 11660 – psychological and structural level 11960 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 10850 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 10670 – minor support 10440 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the Brent crude oil holds above 10850. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Why UAE quit OPEC? Ihfar ya habibi, ihfar (Drill baby, drill)The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC effective May 1, in a major blow to the oil cartel. In February, the UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The UAE has said its decision is not a response to years of Saudi-led production cuts. However, they are now expected to ramp up production, which might have a natural downward pressure on oil prices. Before February 28, the UAE produced around 3.4 million barrels of crude per day. Analysts estimate it has the capacity to produce roughly 5 million barrels per day. As they say in AUE “Ihfar ya habibi, ihfar” (drill baby, drill). A big question is whether the UAE’s departure encourages other members to reconsider abandoning OPEC’s capped-production model. If it does, it could signal a broader sell off in energy markets
Oil’s Third Push Into Resistance | Will It Fail Again?Oil ( FX_IDC:USDBRO ), over the past two months, has been influenced by military conflicts in the Middle East, given that the region is a key corridor for oil transportation and production. Thus, any news on ceasefires or escalations can swiftly impact oil prices. Now, let’s look at the oil chart on the 4-hour timeframe. Oil is currently near the resistance zone($106-$102) and the upper line of the descending channel, marking the third time it’s approaching this upper line. From an Elliott Wave perspective, oil seems to be completing an Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5), with the main wave C potentially finalizing at the upper line of the descending channel. I expect that oil will at least decline toward $97. If bearish momentum increases, we could see the Gap($92.71-$91.50) filled as well. First Target: $97.00 Second Target: Gap($92.71-$91.50) Stop Loss(SL): $108.6(Worst) Points may shift as the market evolves What’s your view on oil’s price? Will it remain bullish, or should we expect further decline? 💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely. 📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame. 🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open. ✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too! 🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.
BRENT CRUDE (BRN) — SHORT SETUP April 28, 2026⚡ THE STORY OIL IS TELLING: In March 2026 — Brent hit $119. Iran war. Hormuz blockade. Everyone screamed $150 oil. Today — Brent is at $104. Same war. Same blockade. Price is $15 lower. This is the market sending a very clear message: The war premium is GONE. Demand fears have taken over. When geopolitical risk can't hold oil above $105 — something structural is happening in the global economy. That something is: 📉 Global demand weakening 📉 Recession risk rising 📉 Consumers cutting spending 📉 Retailers warning on profits Tonight the Fed will decide rates. If hawkish — dollar strengthens. Strong dollar = additional oil pressure. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 TRADE SETUP: 🎯 Entry: $104.42 – $104.80 🛑 Stop Loss: $108.00 ✅ Take Profit: $99.50 ⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.2 ⏱ Timeframe: Short-term (2-3 days) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 BEARISH FACTORS: 🔴 Oil down from $119 → $104 despite ACTIVE war = structural shift 🔴 War premium fully evaporated 🔴 Demand destruction confirmed 🔴 Retail earnings warnings this week 🔴 Bearish sentiment: 35/100 🔴 Large institutional short positions 🔴 Fed decision tonight — hawkish = stronger dollar = oil down 🔴 GDP data Thursday — weak reading = demand fears spike 🟢 RISK FACTORS: - Iran sudden major escalation - Hormuz permanent closure confirmed - OPEC+ emergency output cut - Break above $108 = stop hit - Dovish Fed surprise tonight ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔍 KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS: 🔴 Stop Loss: $108.00 🔴 Resistance: $106.00 → $108.00 🔵 Entry zone: $104.42 – $104.80 🟡 First target: $102.00 🟢 Final target: $99.50 Brent pattern in 2026: → $119 peak March → $88 crash April 7 → $113 bounce April 14 → $88 crash April 22 → $104 today — lower high Each bounce is WEAKER than previous. Lower highs = bearish structure. $99.50 = next major support level. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📅 KEY CATALYSTS THIS WEEK: Tonight — Fed Rate Decision 🔴🔴: → No cut expected (0% probability) → Key: Powell's language → Hawkish tone = dollar up = oil down ✅ → Surprise dovish = oil relief rally → Watch 19:00 ET for statement Tomorrow April 29: → Microsoft earnings (after close) → ADP employment data Thursday April 30 🔴: → US GDP Q1 2026 → Apple earnings → PCE inflation → Weak GDP = demand fears = oil ↓ ✅ Friday May 1: → NFP Jobs Report → Weak jobs = recession = oil ↓ ✅ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 TODAY'S MARKET SNAPSHOT: 🛢️ Brent: $104.60 🥇 Gold: $4,598 ↓ (testing $4,600) ₿ Bitcoin: $76,382 📊 Dow Mini: 49,457 💶 EUR/USD: 1.1696 Gold broke below $4,600 today — major psychological level. Oil at $104 despite war. Both safe havens weakening. When gold AND oil fall together — recession fear is the dominant theme. Short oil is aligned with this narrative. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The war didn't save oil. The market has spoken. Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯 ⚠️ Educational purposes only. Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏
Brent Crude Oil — Gradually Repricing Higher RiskBrent is quietly pushing higher as markets continue to price in ongoing tension around the Strait of Hormuz. There’s no major supply disruption yet — but that’s not the point. Around 20% of global oil flows through this route, so even the possibility of disruption is enough to keep prices supported. What we’re seeing now is a steady build in risk premium, not a panic spike. Chart Read Price recovering within a descending channel Higher lows forming → buyers stepping in earlier Now pushing towards the $100 level Key resistance sits around $108–110 This kind of structure usually signals accumulation, not exhaustion. What’s driving it Middle East tensions remain unresolved Traders slowly pricing in supply risk No shock yet → but enough uncertainty to support price What to watch Oil doesn’t need a full escalation to move higher. It just needs: Continued geopolitical uncertainty Signs of tighter supply Price holding strength (bringing in more buyers) Bottom line Brent is drifting higher as the market reassesses risk. As long as tensions persist, oil remains supported — with $100 acting as the next key level in focus.
Brent Crude Tests Key Levels as Momentum Develops As Brent crude trades above $100, attention turns to the key levels driving a market that has continued to respect its structure despite recent volatility. Break and Hold Above $100 Signals a Shift Too much is often made of psychological price points and round numbers, but in crude, $100 has acted as a genuine line in the sand throughout the Iran conflict, both in the headlines and in the price action itself. It was a level the market consolidated around in March, before being broken decisively when the ceasefire was announced earlier this month. From there, $100 flipped into resistance, capping the recovery when price moved back up to close that gap. That is what made last week’s break and close back above $100 significant. It wasn’t just a move through a round number, it was a shift in how the market is behaving around a level that has already proven itself to be significant. Brent Crude (UKOIL) Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Price action so far this week has built on that move, with the market holding above $100 and beginning to push higher. What matters now is not the break itself, but whether the market can continue to accept above it as momentum develops. A failure to hold above $100 on a closing basis would call the significance of the break into question and likely return focus to the prior range. Momentum Builds on the 4-Hour Structure On the four-hour timeframe, the structure behind this move becomes clearer. Since the false breakdown around the $89 area on 20th April, price has pushed higher in a more controlled fashion, with shallow pullbacks and buyers stepping in relatively quickly. That type of behaviour is consistent with a market that is building momentum, rather than reacting impulsively. With price now holding above $100 and continuing to edge higher, the next structural area of interest comes in around the twin swing highs formed in late March and early April. This is an area where the market has previously struggled to sustain gains, and as such, it provides a useful reference point for how the current move is developing. How price behaves on approach to that zone — whether buyers maintain control or sellers reassert — will be the next meaningful test of whether the current momentum is sustainable. Brent Crude (UKOIL) Four-Hour Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81.31% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
BRENT CRUDE (BRN) — SHORT SETUP April 27, 2026⚡ THE SIGNAL EVERYONE IS IGNORING: There is an active war in the Middle East. Strait of Hormuz — disrupted. US blockade of Iranian ports — active. Saudi Arabia — 600K bpd lost. And yet — Brent Crude is FALLING. This is the most important signal in the oil market right now. When oil can't rally on war news — it means something bigger is weighing on the price. That something is: 📉 DEMAND DESTRUCTION 📉 GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN 📉 OVERSUPPLY FEARS Markets are saying: "We don't care about the war anymore. We care about who is going to buy all this oil." ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 TRADE SETUP: 🎯 Entry: $100.00 – $100.80 🛑 Stop Loss: $104.50 ✅ Take Profit: $96.00 ⚖️ Risk/Reward: 1:2.1 ⏱ Timeframe: Short-term (2-3 days) $100 is now a KEY level. Brent is struggling to hold above it. Psychological resistance at round numbers often becomes ceiling not floor. Every rally to $100-101 has been sold. This pattern favors the short. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 BEARISH FACTORS: 🔴 Oil falling DESPITE active war = demand destruction dominates 🔴 Ceasefire fatigue in market = geopolitical premium deflating 🔴 Global slowdown fears rising 🔴 Retail earnings warnings this week = consumer spending weakening 🔴 Brent failed to hold above $105 = technical weakness confirmed 🔴 Large short positions building = institutional money bearish 🔴 Fed hawkish = strong dollar = commodity pressure 🟢 RISK FACTORS: - Iran sudden re-escalation - Hormuz closure confirmed - OPEC+ emergency output cut - Break above $104.50 = stop hit ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📅 KEY EVENTS THIS WEEK: Wednesday April 29 🔴🔴 CRITICAL: → Federal Reserve rate decision → Hawkish Fed = strong dollar = additional pressure on oil → Dovish hint = dollar down = some oil relief — watch carefully Thursday April 30 🔴: → US GDP Q1 2026 → Weak GDP = demand destruction confirmed = oil falls further ✅ → Strong GDP = oil stabilizes Friday May 1: → NFP Jobs Report → Weak jobs = recession fear = oil demand concern = bearish ✅ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 THE BIGGER PICTURE: Brent price history in April: → Peak: $119 (early March) → Ceasefire crash: $88 (Apr 7) → Re-escalation bounce: $113 (Apr 14) → Reopening crash: $88 (Apr 22) → Current: $100 Each bounce is getting WEAKER. Each crash is getting DEEPER. This is a market that is slowly pricing out the war premium and focusing on fundamentals. Fundamentals say: Global growth is slowing. Demand is weakening. Supply — despite disruptions — is finding ways to flow. The market has spoken. The war premium is done. Follow the price — not the headlines. Follow AI_advisor_ for daily signals on Gold, Oil & Bitcoin. 🎯 ⚠️ Educational purposes only. Manage your risk. Trade safe. 🙏
Short-Term Recovery Signal in Brent OilBrent at $99.78 is giving a short-term bullish signal by positioning above the AlphaTrend support level of $98.37 on the 4-hour chart. How is momentum developing? The squeeze momentum indicator's 3.35 reading shows positive pressure continuing, while RSI staying in a healthy bullish zone at 61.58 signals that overbought risk has not yet formed, and the price trading 10.6% above the 50-day moving average at $90.21 maintains its short-term strength on the trend side. With the AlphaTrend indicator's active BUY signal, the $98.37 level becomes a critical support line, and if this level holds, test movements toward the $108.42 resistance can be expected. The movement within the $84.20-$108.42 band on the 4-hour structure reveals that the current price is positioned in the upper half of this range and buyers have not yet relinquished control. Which scenario should be monitored? As long as persistence above the $98.37 AlphaTrend support is maintained, the potential for advancement toward the $108.42 resistance can be preserved, however declines below this level could strengthen correction movements toward the 50-day moving average at $90.21, and the negative momentum signals seen on the daily chart suggest the short-term recovery may remain limited. Thanks for reading.
OIL (Brent) – Premium Rejection, Pullback before ContinuationCurrent context (H4 + H1) - H4: bullish structure (CHoCH + BOS) from discount - Price reached premium (100–104) → supply zone - H1: PDH sweep (102.4) + bearish CHoCH → early weakness - No acceptance above highs → only rejections 🧠 Market behavior - Classic flow: accumulation → expansion → liquidity sweep → pullback - Upside liquidity taken → high probability of correction - Current area = distribution / equilibrium 📉 Main scenario (Intraday SHORT) - As long as price stays below 101.8 – 102.4 ➡️ targets: - TP1: 99.7 - TP2: 98.4 – 97.6 - TP3: 96.9 ✔️ Confirmation: - lower TF bearish BOS - rejection from supply - continuation below 100.5 📈 Alternative scenario (H4 Bullish continuation) - If price accepts above 102.4 ➡️ targets: - 104.2 - 109.5 ✔️ Confirmation: - BOS above highs - holding above PDH ⚠️ SSM Insight - Do not buy in premium - Best setups = discount entries (98–97) - Current short = pullback within bullish trend
OIL (Brent) H4 – Continuation after ReaccumulationCurrent context - Price reacted from discount (≈84–90) → strong bullish expansion - Structure shift confirmed: CHoCH + BOS bullish - Price now in premium zone (≈100–104) with reaction - Rejection from PDH (~102.4) → liquidity taken - EMA200 below price → overall bullish bias 🧠 Market behavior - Classic flow: accumulation → expansion → premium reaction - Upside liquidity taken → possible short-term pullback - Current zone = equilibrium / mini range 📉 Main scenario (Bullish continuation) - As long as price holds above 99.0 – 98.5 ➡️ targets: - TP1: 102.4 - TP2: 104.2 - TP3: 109.5 ✔️ Confirmation: - bullish reaction from 99–98 - lower TF BOS - holding above EMA200 📈 Alternative scenario (Bearish pullback) - If price breaks below 98.5 ➡️ targets: - 96.8 - 94.8 - 91–90 ✔️ Confirmation: - bearish CHoCH - rejection below PDH ⚠️ SSM Insight - Upside liquidity already taken → not ideal to chase buys - Best setups = discount entries, not premium
The Energy Markets and Inflation Playbook!Oil moves first. Everything else follows. Why energy prices are the leading indicator most traders overlook. Before inflation shows up in CPI data, before central banks adjust their language, before bond markets reprice: Oil moves. Energy prices are the earliest and most sensitive inflation indicator available to traders in real time, and most retail traders watch them as an afterthought rather than a leading signal. The transmission mechanism is direct and powerful. Energy costs feed into almost every production process in every industry. When oil rises significantly: transportation costs rise manufacturing input costs rise eventually consumer prices rise. The lag between oil moving and CPI reflecting it is typically two months. Traders who watch oil are seeing inflation move before the data confirms it. This matters enormously for central bank expectations and therefore for currencies and bonds. If oil has been rising sharply for six weeks before the next CPI release, a hot CPI print should not be a surprise. It was telegraphed by energy prices weeks earlier. Traders who were watching oil had two to four months to position for the dollar strength, yield rise, and gold dynamics that a hot CPI generates. The reverse is equally powerful. Sustained oil weakness signals disinflationary pressure coming through the pipeline. This eventually gives central banks room to ease policy, which is dollar negative and potentially supportive for risk assets. Again, oil moves first. The macro repricing follows. The practical habit: every week check whether oil has been consistently rising or falling over the past four to six weeks. If it has been rising sharply, expect upside inflation surprises in the coming months and position accordingly. If it has been falling consistently, disinflationary data is likely ahead.
The Anatomy of Oil's $85-120 ConsolidationHey everyone. While everyone's panicking over geopolitical swings and wondering whether Brent will hit $150 or crash to $60, I see a completely different picture. The oil market right now reminds me of water at 80°C — everyone's waiting for it to boil at 100°C, but nobody understands the process is already underway. Most traders are now playing on emotions from every news story out of the Persian Gulf. Strait of Hormuz blockade, US-Iran negotiations, threats of refinery bombings — and everyone rushes to buy or sell. This is a classic mistake. News isn't the cause of movement. It's just a convenient explanation they feed you after the move has already happened. Geopolitical Theater and Real Drivers Yes, Brent is holding around $100 after all this drama with Hormuz. Yes, the risk premium of $10-20 per barrel is real. But let's look deeper. Iran exports 1.5 million barrels per day to China. That's a serious volume, but not critical for the global balance. Venezuela, Russia — we've been through all these stories before. The market adapts through shadow fleets, flow reorientation, discounts. More important factor — the structural surplus of 2026. Production growth from non-OPEC+ countries exceeds demand growth from China and India. This is basic math that everyone ignores in the frenzy of geopolitical paranoia. As for the Russian market — the impact there is negative. MOEX is trading sideways, the oil alpha is gone due to tax changes and inflationary pressure. Oil companies aren't showing the previous correlation with commodity prices. My Base Case: $85-120 Consolidation This is where the majority gets it completely wrong. Everyone's looking for directional movement — either a moon shot to $150 or a crash to $60. But I see extended consolidation in the $85-120 range followed by an upward breakout. Why exactly this range? Too many triggers for volatility in both directions: - Uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz blockade - Potential strikes on refineries in Iran, Qatar, UAE - Trump negotiations (every de-escalation signal knocks off $5-10) - OPEC+ quota corrections after Q2 results - Logistical problems with Russia's shadow fleet Each of these factors can move the market 10-15% in either direction. But combined they create volatility equilibrium, not trending movement. Crowd Psychology: Classic Mistakes Right now speculators are building long oil positions during geopolitical flare-ups. This is a typical momentum-trading mistake. Buying on fear, selling on relief. Institutions are playing contrarian. Banks analysts are already talking about fading the geopolitical effect. Finam writes: "Expensive oil no longer supports equities". They understand that structural factors matter more than news spikes. Scenarios with Specific Triggers Base case (65% probability): Consolidation $85-120 through end of 2026. Trigger for upper boundary — escalation in Persian Gulf. Trigger for lower — US-Iran deal or non-OPEC supply surplus. Bearish scenario (20% probability): Downward break to $75-80 with full de-escalation and return to structural surplus. Trigger — successful Trump negotiations and removal of all Iran sanctions. Bullish scenario (15% probability): Move to $130-150 with full Hormuz blockade or strikes on critical infrastructure. But this is more of a short-term spike than sustainable trend. My Positions and Tactics I'm trading the range. Buying lower boundaries of my box, selling upper ones. Every box on the chart is a potential entry point. Now waiting for acceptable levels around $88-92 for buys. Not chasing every geopolitical spike. Patiently building positions in value zones. The oil market isn't crypto — different laws apply here. Fundamental cycles, long-term contracts, infrastructure constraints. My horizon is 6-12 months. Waiting for consolidation to complete with an upward breakout against the backdrop of excess inventory depletion and global demand growth in 2027. Why the Breakout Will Be Up Long-term picture remains bullish. Underinvestment in new fields from 2020-2023 is showing. ESG restrictions on oil project financing haven't gone anywhere. Geopolitical premium will become a structural price element. The world is becoming multipolar, conflicts are the norm. $10-15 geopolitical premium is baked into prices for the long haul. India and Southeast Asian countries are ramping up consumption. China could again become a demand driver with economic stimulus. Conclusion While the crowd trades news and emotions, I'm building positions at technical levels in the key range. Oil is a long-term game where patience wins, not reacting to every tweet from the White House. The coming months will show who's right — the panic crowd or those who can read market structure. I'm betting on consolidation followed by growth. Your EXCAVO
Brent Crude pivotal 9395 support levelThe BRENT crude oil remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 9390 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 9390 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 10180 – initial resistance 10520 – psychological and structural level 10750 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 9390 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 9140 – minor support 8900 – stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: Bullish bias remains intact while the Brent crude oil holds above 9390. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Brent Crude Coils as Key Levels Come into FocusBrent crude’s price action during the two-week ceasefire has created a clear structure, with multiple failed moves on both sides of the market. As that pause potentially comes to an end on Wednesday, attention now turns to which level gives way as price approaches a key decision point. Failed Moves Define the Daily Structure Brent’s reaction to the ceasefire began with a sharp gap lower, breaking down from the triangle consolidation that had formed near the highs. That move initially suggested a shift in sentiment, but the lack of downside follow-through quickly became apparent, with price stabilising rather than accelerating lower. From there, the market moved higher to close the gap at the psychologically significant $100 level. However, rather than reclaiming that area and building momentum, price stalled and rotated lower, highlighting that the recovery lacked conviction. The market then retested the swing low formed on the day of the ceasefire, breaking and closing below that level on Friday. Yet that move was immediately challenged, with Monday opening back above support and holding within Friday’s range to form an inside day. Taken together, this sequence of failed continuation in both directions has left a clearly defined, but unresolved, structure on the daily timeframe. Brent Crude (UKOIL) Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Compression Builds, but the Trend Softens On the 4-hour timeframe, that indecision is now showing up as tightening price action, with the market beginning to coil above support. The range has narrowed and momentum has slowed, suggesting that participants are stepping back rather than committing to a fresh move. However, while the market is holding above support, the underlying structure is less stable than it first appears. Price has been carving out a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, pointing to a subtle shift in control that leans against the idea of immediate upside continuation. In other words, support is holding, but pressure has not disappeared. This is what creates the tension in the current setup. The market is compressing, but it is doing so within a softening structure, leaving both breakout and breakdown scenarios in play. With the ceasefire period nearing its end and last-minute negotiations underway, volatility may increase as new information reaches the market.. In this context, the edges of the range — support below and the sequence of lower highs above — represent the areas where the picture is likely to become clearer. The recent sequence has shown that initial moves have struggled to follow through. With compression now in place, any expansion in range may carry more weight, particularly if accompanied by a clear break in structure rather than another failed push in either direction Brent Crude (UKOIL) Four-Hour Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81.31% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Oil Bull Rally Starting Soon?(Not financial advice) Comment below please. It is fun to discuss the outlook. Based on my current wave count, I think wave 4 is done and we are in wave 5 now. Mainly due to the fact that the final mid-March rally that led to the double top was not an impulsive move, mixed with the absolutely beautiful alternating symmetry we are seeing here in the wave structures. The amount of time they are taking to complete and the fib extensions all line up so well. (Wave 4) Price discovery takes time when radical changes happen in one of the most important global markets (oil)! Typically the middle of the price discovery range ($100/barrel) is seen to be "Fair Value". This wave 4 pullback started off with an initial, very large, high energy wave W crash to start it off, but that wasn't the end of the story. Then the X(1) structure wants to appear impulsive, but I am certain we are looking at a 3-wave corrective structure up in X. Then Y has a nice 5 wave move. Notice that Y is shrunken almost because the W wave was just so aggressive. Think of the market as containing potential energy - well, W used up too much and so Y got the leftovers. The following X(2) wave has amounted to an average move out of the 3 downward corrective moves here.
