Quick Read
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Oracle (ORCL) has lost half its value from a $303 peak, but 24/7 Wall St. rates it a BUY with 47% upside to $224.
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CFO Hilary Maxson bought 224,441 shares at $185 on May 5, followed by seven directors who coordinated reinvestment days later.
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Oracle's $638 billion RPO backlog, which is up 363% YoY, signals strong revenue visibility, while its negative $23.7 billion free cash flow remains the key risk.
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Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) has been one of the most punished mega-cap AI stories of 2026, sliding from a $303.62 peak in October to $152.46 today. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Oracle is $223.70, implying 46.73% upside over the next 12 months. The recommendation is buy with high confidence (90%).
How a $303 Stock Became a $152 Stock in Nine Months
Oracle is down 17.27% over the past week, 21.03% in a month, and 31.8% from its September 2025 high.
Q4 FY2026, reported June 10, 2026, delivered $19.184 billion in revenue and $2.11 in non-GAAP EPS, both above estimates. Cloud Infrastructure grew 93% YoY to $5.787 billion, and remaining performance obligations reached $638 billion, up 363% YoY.
Shares closed down 8.53% on the earnings report as investors focused on -$23.686 billion free cash flow and planned $40 billion capital raise. CFO Hilary Maxson bought 224,441 shares at $185.35 on May 5. Seven directors followed with coordinated reinvestment on May 31.
The Case for $300+: Why Bulls See a Breakout
The bull case rests on RPO conversion. CFO Maxson told investors the $638 billion backlog provides "exceptional visibility," with 12% recognizable in the next 12 months and another 34% in 13 to 36 months.
Cloud Infrastructure chief Clay Magouyrk noted Oracle signed "$67 billion in AI infrastructure contracts this quarter" with global GPU utilization at 97.5%. Multicloud database grew 404% in Q4.
Of 43 analysts covering Oracle, 30 rate it Buy and 6 Strong Buy, with a consensus target of $252.64. Our bull case projects $352.30 within 12 months if RPO converts ahead of schedule and OCI margins hold in the 30% to 40% range Magouyrk targeted.
What Could Go Wrong
Trailing CapEx of $55.663 billion drove free cash flow to -$23.686 billion, and FY2027 net cash CapEx is guided to around $70 billion. Total liabilities sit at $218.703 billion. Software license revenue shrank 6% in Q4.