Market movements on Wednesday were dominated by the prospects of a ceasefire negotiation between the US and Iran. As Iran adopted a tougher stance, oil prices rebounded from their daily lows and eventually turned positive. The US stock market and Treasury bonds did not follow the reversal in oil prices but instead closed slightly higher, showing a temporary divergence in their usual correlation.
According to reports from CCTV News and other media outlets, the '15-point ceasefire agreement' proposed by the US demands that Iran dismantle its major nuclear facilities and reduce its missile capabilities to levels solely for self-defense. Meanwhile, Iran’s conditions for a ceasefire include guarantees that neither the US nor Israel will initiate another war against Iran, as well as demands for war reparations and recognition of its jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz.
Regarding the repeated mention by the White House of 'engaging in negotiations with Iran,' Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi responded that over the past few days, the US had conveyed proposals for ending the conflict through several friendly nations, which Iran's top leadership is currently reviewing. However, this exchange of information via mediators does not equate to formal negotiations with the US.
The Iranian Foreign Minister also emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz is 'closed only to enemies,' while Iran’s military has ensured safe passage for vessels from friendly nations.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf issued a warning, stating that intelligence reports suggest Iran's adversaries, with support from a certain regional country, are planning to seize one of Iran’s islands. Kalibaf stated that if they dare take any action, all critical infrastructure within that country will be ruthlessly targeted without exception.
Meanwhile, following Gulf-region reports that Iran is no longer willing to negotiate with the US Middle East envoy Witkof or Trump’s advisor and son-in-law Kushner, US Vice President Vance, who remained largely silent during this round of conflict, has become a focal figure.
A report from just a few hours ago indicated that the US is attempting to arrange a meeting in Pakistan this weekend, which Vance is expected to attend. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the timing, location, and participants of this arrangement, and it is unclear whether representatives from Iran will participate.
Elias Haddad, a strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), noted that despite lingering strategic ambiguity in the geopolitical situation, the current positioning of the market suggests bets are being placed on a de-escalation of the conflict. Ultimately, how Iran responds to the US policy shift toward 'de-escalation' will determine whether the market has already passed its most panic-stricken phase or if greater risks still lie ahead.
As another party involved in this war, Israel is reportedly 'accelerating its pace of strikes against Iran.' According to multiple informed sources, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered on Tuesday that all efforts be made within the next 48 hours to destroy as many Iranian military-industrial facilities as possible. This hasty move reflects Israel's concern that the war might be forced to an end sooner than expected.
According toCCTV NewsThe news of the US submitting a 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran triggered a strong market reaction, with Brent crude oil prices dropping by as much as 3%. However, as Iran rejected the US ceasefire proposal, asserting it would not allow Trump to dictate the timing of a ceasefire, the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that exchanging information does not equate to negotiations.
Brent crude and WTI recovered all intraday losses, with WTI rising over 3% and Brent gaining more than 2%. Meanwhile, refined petroleum product prices continued to strengthen, with U.S. diesel remaining above $5 per gallon for nine consecutive days.
Notably, oil shipments to Asia have begun to normalize. Oman-Dubai crude plummeted 13%, trading at $100 per barrel, as Iran stated that the strait is 'open to non-belligerent countries' and 'non-hostile vessels' can pass through the Strait of Hormuz 'in coordination with Iran.'
According to Bloomberg data, the negative correlation between the S&P 500 and WTI crude has persisted for 17 trading days since March 3. Since early 2022, this phenomenon has occurred only twice. However, today’s correlation weakened slightly, and U.S. equities did not reverse alongside oil prices.
The three major U.S. indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq up 0.77%. The Russell small-cap index gained over 1.2%. The Chinese concept index outperformed the broader market, closing up 1.86%.
Inflationary pressures are quietly mounting, with U.S. import prices posting their largest increase since 2022, adding another layer of concern to an already strained macroeconomic backdrop. Structurally, the rebound was driven by a brief window following overnight ceasefire announcements, after which equity indices largely moved sideways.
From the cash open, all three major indices recorded declines, with bullish breakout attempts failing at key technical resistance levels.
The S&P 500 has experienced daily swings exceeding 1% for six consecutive trading sessions, marking the fourth such streak in the past year.
According to Goldman Sachs analyst Shreeti Kapa, the MSCI World Index has fallen approximately 7% since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. While the decline remains relatively moderate compared to the 2022 energy shock, current equity valuations are significantly higher than pre-shock levels, and the equity risk premium has approached zero.
Against this backdrop, Kapa concludes that the logic of 'cash is king' has regained relevance. A binary risk environment increasingly rewards liquidity and flexibility over directional bets. Until uncertainty dissipates, the opportunity cost of holding cash is minimal while providing significant room for maneuver.
Nomura Securities strategist Charlie McElligott pointed out:
Investors are generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude, driven by both risk concerns and deeply rooted skepticism about a swift resolution to the conflict.
In terms of individual stocks, state media has declared that 'the food delivery war should come to an end,' with Meituan rising 13.8%, JD.com gaining 8.3%, and Alibaba increasing 3.6%.Google released a KV cache compression technology.Storage stocks fell broadly,$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$with Micron Technology among the hardest hit, closing down over 3.4%.
Ask Futubull AI:Google has released a KV cache compression technology. What is its impact on storage-related concept stocks?
On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury bonds decoupled from oil price movements, with yields on the 10-year note declining by 2.3 basis points while the 2-year yield remained flat. European bond markets also strengthened, particularly for Italian bonds, which are highly sensitive to energy import dependency.
$美元指数(USDindex.FX)$Recovering from yesterday’s losses, the index rose 0.45% intraday. Analysts attribute the ongoing inflow of safe-haven funds into the dollar to the uncertain state of negotiations.
$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.CFD)$ Continuing its rebound from the previous session's late trading, prices briefly tested the $4,600 level before retreating from their gains. Silver/USD (XAGUSD.FX) Similarly experiencing a surge followed by a pullback, prices ended flat compared to the previous session’s close.
U.S. major stock indices closed higher on Wednesday, with the biotech ETF climbing over 2.5%, leading all sector ETFs in the U.S. market.$Circle(CRCL.US)$Rebounded by 2.67%. Meituan surged 13.8%, JD.com rose 8.3%. Pop Mart ADR plummeted over 22%. Storage stocks SanDisk and Micron Technology closed down more than 3.4%.
U.S. Equity Benchmark Indices:
$S&P 500 Index(.SPX.US)$Closed up 35.53 points, a gain of 0.54%, at 6591.90 points, showing an overall trend of opening higher and remaining in high-range fluctuations.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 305.43 points, a rise of 0.66%, at 46429.49 points.
Nasdaq closed up 167.931 points, a gain of 0.77%, at 21929.825 points.the Nasdaq 100 Index (.NDX.US)Closed up 160.528 points, a rise of 0.67%, at 24162.976 points.
Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)Closed up 1.23% at 2536.378 points.
The VIX volatility index, or 'fear gauge,' fell 5.94% to close at 25.35, after gapping lower at 15:15 Beijing time and continuing to fluctuate at low levels.
U.S. sector ETFs:
iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB.US) Closed up 2.54%, $JETS.US - U.S. Global Jets ETF Rose 1.89%, $iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX.US)$ Increased 1.12%, The Technology Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLK.US) Up 0.46%, iShares Global Tech ETF (IXN.US) Up 0.46%, Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US) Dropped by 0.44%.
Mag 7:
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The Mag 7 index rose by 0.81%, closing at 186.64 points, with an overall trend of a high opening and low closing.
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Component stocks,$Amazon(AMZN.US)$rose by 2.16%, $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$up 1.99%, $Tesla(TSLA.US)$, Apple, Meta, Google A gained up to 0.76%, Microsoft (MSFT.US)while NVIDIA fell by 0.46%.
Semiconductor stocks:
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Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX.US)Closed up 1.21% at 7,967.745 points.
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AMD and Intel closed up 7%,Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)Up 1.31%, ARM surged 16%.
Chinese concept stocks:
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The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.86% at 6,897.01 points.
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$Popular Chinese Concept Stocks (LIST2517.US)$Inside,Baozun E-Commerce (BZUN.US)Initially closed up 15.5%, Meituan rose 13.8%, JD.com gained 8.3%,PDD Holdings (PDD.US)Up 4.5%, Alibaba gained 3.6%,Baidu (BIDU.US)Up 2.8%,$New Oriental Education (EDU.US)$Xiaomi rose over 2%. Pop Mart ADR fell more than 22%.
Other individual stocks:
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$Eli Lilly and Co(LLY.US)$Eli Lilly and Co rose 1.47%, Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares fell 0.66%.
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$Netflix (NFLX.US)$Closed up 1.50%,Qualcomm (QCOM.US)Up 1.31%,Broadcom (AVGO.US)Up 0.16%,$Salesforce(CRM.US)$Down 0.58%,$Adobe(ADBE.US)$Down 0.68%,$Oracle(ORCL.US)$and the Hang Seng TECH Index fell by 0.73%.
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$Circle(CRCL.US)$ Rebounded by 2.67%.
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$Storage Concept Stocks (LIST23925.US)$ Plummeted,$Micron Technology(MU.US)$、 $SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ while others fell more than 3%.
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JetBlue Airways (JBLU.US)Increased over 13%. The company is seeking potential partners for mergers and acquisitions.
South Korea concept stocks closed slightly lower.
Germany's stock market closed over 1.4% higher, with Italy’s banking sector rising more than 1.8%.
Pan-European stocks:
The European STOXX 600 Index closed up 1.42% at 587.49 points.
The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed up 1.22% at 5,649.33 points.
National indices:
The German DAX 30 Index closed up 1.41% at 22,957.08 points. $iShares Germany ETF (EWG.US)$
The French CAC 40 Index closed up 1.33% at 7,846.55 points. $iShares France ETF (EWQ.US)$
The UK FTSE 100 Index closed up 1.42% at 10,106.84 points. $iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU.US)$
Middle East Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil futures fell 13.67%, settling at $100.26 per barrel.
Crude Oil:
WTI May crude oil futures settled at $90.32 per barrel.
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Brent May crude oil futures settled at $102.22 per barrel.
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Middle East Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil futures fell 13.67%, settling at $100.26 per barrel.
Natural Gas:
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The NYMEX April natural gas futures settled at USD 2.9520 per million British thermal units.$United States Natural Gas ETF(UNG.US)$
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Editor/Liam
The translation is provided by third-party software.
Source: Investing.com Forex