The SPCX perpetual on Hyperliquid has bounced from this week’s lows, while Bloomberg says other shadow markets now imply a first-day gain of more than 35%.

  • A SpaceX-linked perpetual contract on the crypto exchange Hyperliquid, trading as SPCX, rebounded to about $176 to $183 on Friday after sliding to near $153 earlier in the week.
  • At around $183, SPCX now implies roughly a 36% premium to SpaceX’s $135 IPO price, up from about 16% on Wednesday but still below May levels when the premium neared 60%.
  • Other shadow markets, including IG International derivatives and Polymarket, are also signaling strong demand, with implied valuations more than 35% above the IPO level and odds favoring a first-day close above $2 trillion.

A SpaceX-linked perpetual contract on Hyperliquid, trading under SPCX, rebounded sharply into stock's expected Friday debut after spending three weeks cutting the implied first-day premium on Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company.

The contract traded between about $176 and $183 on Friday morning, up from a low near $153 earlier this week and above the roughly $157 level seen when CoinDesk wrote Wednesday that crypto traders were marking down the expected IPO pop.

Open interest stood near $216 million, with 24-hour volume above $150 million on Hyperliquid. Open interest refers to the dollar value of active, or open, contracts.

Hyperliquid's SPCX does not give holders SpaceX shares, allocation rights or any claim on the company. It is a cash-settled derivative. But because SpaceX priced its IPO at a fixed $135 a share, it has become one of the few live markets showing where traders think the stock could open.

Blockchain-based prediction markets have recently emerged as the go-to-place for investors to bet on the SpaceX IPO, offering a decentralized alternative to traditional pre-IPO markets. Unlike private equity deals that require accreditation and high minimums, these onchain markets are accessible to retail investors with minimal capital, creating 24/7 price discovery on IPO odds.

At Wednesday’s level near $157, SPCX implied only a roughly 16% premium to the $135 IPO price, down from about 60% when the contract briefly traded near $216 in May. At $183, the implied premium is back near 36%.

Other shadow markets are now pointing the same way. Bloomberg reported Friday that IG International derivatives implied a SpaceX valuation of about $2.4 trillion, more than 35% above the $1.77 trillion valuation set by the IPO price.

Elsewhere, Polymarket traders put 70% odds on SpaceX closing its first trading day above $2 trillion.

The reversal comes as pre-IPO SPCX has shown caution in the market, falling by about 30% over the past few weeks. It suggested traders still expected SpaceX to trade above the offer price, but not at the explosive premium implied by the bookbuild. And Friday’s bounce now says that discount is closing.