The Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) IPO was the biggest, and arguably the most divisive, in history. It raised about $75 billion, and for a brief period on June 16, it surpassed Microsoft and Amazon -- two companies with much stronger balance sheets -- in market cap.
SpaceX has been extremely volatile in its first weeks on the market. Since peaking at $226, it has declined to about $155 at market close on June 24. Does the pullback make for a better buying opportunity, or is the leading space company still overvalued?
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The valuation is still astronomical
The most common criticism in the lead-up to SpaceX going public was the valuation. SpaceX is trading higher than its IPO price of $135 at the time of this writing, so the valuation concerns haven't gone away.
SpaceX isn't profitable, reporting a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025. Revenue that year was $18.7 billion. At a market cap of just over $2 trillion, SpaceX trades at 109 times last year's sales, making it the most expensive megacap stock. Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), previously the poster child for high valuations, is trading at 65 times annual sales.
Palantir used to be far more expensive, but it has lost 45% of its value since reaching an all-time high of $208 last November. That's what tends to happen with stocks trading at these kinds of premiums, because such high valuations are rarely sustainable.
The lockup expiration could create significant selling pressure
Another risk of buying SpaceX stock now is that the stock is still in its lockup period, during which insiders can't sell their shares. While most companies set a fixed lockup period, typically 180 days, SpaceX handles this very differently.
It's taking a staggered approach, where selling windows for a percentage of insider holdings open gradually. The first selling window opens on the second trading day after the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings release, and insiders will be able to sell up to 20% of their shares. If the stock trades 30% above its IPO price (which would be $175.50) for at least five of the 10 trading days leading up to the earnings release, then insiders can sell up to an additional 10%.
Selling windows will continue to open through Dec. 8, 2026, which is when the lockup period ends. However, CEO Elon Musk has said that he and "certain significant investors" have agreed to a 366-day lockup period.